10 Hardest Machoke Pokémon Cards to Pull
Ranked by estimated pull rates from English booster packs.
Machoke’s illustration rare gives the middle evolution a scene of its own, alongside older framed artwork and reverse holos. Each finish and collector number is a separate collecting goal. Compare their estimated English pack odds with the evidence labels kept in view.
Pull rates are estimates—see how this ranking works.
Estimated odds, limited coverage. This uses the same estimates as our pull-rate calculators, including labelled rough models and very-low-confidence assumptions. It does not establish the hardest Machoke ever printed; nearby estimates may not represent a real difference in difficulty.
How the ranking works ↓We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links. Card images are artwork references; edition stamps and foil finishes may differ.
Machoke pull rates at a glance
A larger pack figure means a lower estimated chance. Figures are rounded to two significant digits; matching rounded estimates share a rank.
| Rank | Card & set | Estimated packs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machoke 177/165Pokémon 151 · Holofoil | ~1 in 190 |
| 2 | Machoke 85/165Expedition · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 160Rough estimate |
| 3 = | Machoke 87/196Lost Origin · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 150Rough estimate |
| 3 = | Machoke 38/144Skyridge · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 150Rough estimate |
| 5 | Machoke 64/145Guardians Rising · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 130Rough estimate |
| 6 | Machoke 53/130Diamond and Pearl · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 120Rough estimate |
| 7 | Machoke 51/110Legendary Collection · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 110 |
| 8 | Machoke 67/165Pokémon 151 · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 100Rough estimate |
| 9 = | Machoke 33/108EX Power Keepers · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 97Rough estimate |
| 9 = | Machoke 45/111Furious Fists · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 97Rough estimate |
The hardest-to-pull Machoke countdown
#9 (joint) · Machoke
Furious Fists · 45/111 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 97 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$3.02 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Furious Fists printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 97 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#9 (joint) · Machoke
EX Power Keepers · 33/108 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 97 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$21.99 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This EX Power Keepers printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 97 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#8 · Machoke
Pokémon 151 · 67/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 100 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.42 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The reverse holo is a separate finish of this numbered 151 card, rather than an illustration rare. A shared artwork image does not show every foil difference, so match the finish as well as the collector number.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1.5 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 153 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#7 · Machoke
Legendary Collection · 51/110 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 110 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$133.86 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Legendary Collection’s distinctive reverse-holo treatment makes this a different collecting target from the ordinary finish. The displayed image may be an artwork reference; check the actual foil pattern when buying.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Reverse holos use the community single-sheet estimate of 1/110. Common and uncommon estimates approximate the mixed nine-card sheet.
#6 · Machoke
Diamond and Pearl · 53/130 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 120 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$4.28 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Diamond and Pearl printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 119 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#5 · Machoke
Guardians Rising · 64/145 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 130 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$1.61 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Guardians Rising printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 126 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#3 (joint) · Machoke
Skyridge · 38/144 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 150 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$65.00 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The e-Reader-style border is part of this Skyridge card’s visual identity. This estimate is for the reverse holo specifically; another finish can share the same artwork and collector number.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 150 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#3 (joint) · Machoke
Lost Origin · 87/196 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 150 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.28 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Lost Origin printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 149 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#2 · Machoke
Expedition · 85/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 160 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$35.06 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Expedition’s e-Reader-era design gives this printing a different look from modern cards. This entry ranks the reverse holo of the exact collector number shown, rather than every foil card with the same Pokémon name.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 159 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#1 · Machoke
Pokémon 151 · 177/165 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 190 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$19.73 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Machoke helps with boxes and furniture in a busy domestic scene that stretches across the card. The illustration rare is 177/165, separate from the ordinary Machoke in 151 and its reverse-holo version.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
How we compare Machoke pull rates
We compare the chance of pulling one exact card from one English pack of its release. A rarity’s overall hit rate is different from the odds of finding a particular Machoke within that rarity. Evidence ranges from reported community openings and print-sheet models to rough comparisons and assumed rarity frequencies. Each rough estimate carries its warning beside the odds; expand its explanation for the actual basis.
Japanese cards, guaranteed promos, deck cards and box toppers are outside this ranking. Vintage editions with shared odds take one position. Distinct pack-pulled finishes can qualify separately. Prices do not affect the order, and a missing price does not remove an otherwise eligible card.
Up to ten cards are selected automatically from available estimates, with any tie at the cutoff kept together. Estimates are rounded to two significant digits for comparison, not presented as precise measurements. New cards can enter when a matching printing and estimate are available; prices refresh with the catalogue. Descriptions stay with their card when the order changes.
Machoke pull-rate questions
Which Machoke card is hardest to pull?
Machoke 177/165 (Pokémon 151, Holofoil) has the lowest estimated chance among the qualifying cards here: about 1 in 190 packs. This is the current model’s ordering, including any rough assumptions labelled above. It does not cover every Machoke ever released.
Will opening 190 packs guarantee the top-ranked card?
No. For the first card listed at rank 1, opening 190 independent packs gives an estimated 63.7% chance of at least one copy. The average waiting time is not a promise; actual packs and factory collation can behave differently from this model.
Is the hardest Machoke to pull also the most expensive?
Not necessarily. Artwork, demand, condition and how much product exists also matter to collectors. This guide ranks estimated pack odds. Our most expensive Machoke guide compares available raw prices instead.
Do a booster box or an Elite Trainer Box guarantee a Machoke?
These estimates do not establish any product-level guarantee. A named Machoke promo included in a product is separate from the random cards inside its booster packs. Use the exact-card calculator to explore pack quantities and its stated assumptions.
Why can a reverse-holo Machoke rank above a rarer-looking card?
This compares one exact printing. A large reverse-holo pool can make a particular card’s modelled chance small even when reverse holos overall are common. Most of these estimates assume equal chances within the pool. That does not prove this Pokémon is short-printed, and it does not describe the ordinary non-holo version.