10 Hardest Machop Pokémon Cards to Pull
Ranked by estimated pull rates from English booster packs.
Machop’s collection rewards attention to artwork changes and foil finishes across generations of sets. Much of this comparison concerns exact reverse holos rather than ultra rares. Their estimates describe an assumed share of a set’s pool, not evidence that Machop was specially short-printed.
Pull rates are estimates—see how this ranking works.
Estimated odds, limited coverage. This uses the same estimates as our pull-rate calculators, including labelled rough models and very-low-confidence assumptions. It does not establish the hardest Machop ever printed; nearby estimates may not represent a real difference in difficulty.
How the ranking works ↓We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links. Card images are artwork references; edition stamps and foil finishes may differ.
Machop pull rates at a glance
A larger pack figure means a lower estimated chance. Figures are rounded to two significant digits; matching rounded estimates share a rank.
| Rank | Card & set | Estimated packs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machop 117/165Expedition · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 160Rough estimate |
| 2 = | Machop 86/196Lost Origin · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 150Rough estimate |
| 2 = | Machop 74/144Skyridge · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 150Rough estimate |
| 4 = | Machop (62) 62/145Guardians Rising · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 130Rough estimate |
| 4 = | Machop (63) 63/145Guardians Rising · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 130Rough estimate |
| 6 | Machop 86/130Diamond and Pearl · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 120Rough estimate |
| 7 | Machop 79/110Legendary Collection · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 110 |
| 8 | Machop 66/165Pokémon 151 · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 100Rough estimate |
| 9 = | Machop 53/108EX Power Keepers · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 97Rough estimate |
| 9 = | Machop 44/111Furious Fists · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 97Rough estimate |
The hardest-to-pull Machop countdown
#9 (joint) · Machop
Furious Fists · 44/111 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 97 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.70 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Furious Fists printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 97 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#9 (joint) · Machop
EX Power Keepers · 53/108 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 97 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$18.00 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This EX Power Keepers printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 97 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#8 · Machop
Pokémon 151 · 66/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 100 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.34 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The reverse holo is a separate finish of this numbered 151 card, rather than an illustration rare. A shared artwork image does not show every foil difference, so match the finish as well as the collector number.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1.5 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 153 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#7 · Machop
Legendary Collection · 79/110 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 110 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$210.00 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Legendary Collection’s distinctive reverse-holo treatment makes this a different collecting target from the ordinary finish. The displayed image may be an artwork reference; check the actual foil pattern when buying.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Reverse holos use the community single-sheet estimate of 1/110. Common and uncommon estimates approximate the mixed nine-card sheet.
#6 · Machop
Diamond and Pearl · 86/130 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 120 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$3.09 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Diamond and Pearl printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 119 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#4 (joint) · Machop (63)
Guardians Rising · 63/145 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 130 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.33 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Guardians Rising printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 126 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#4 (joint) · Machop (62)
Guardians Rising · 62/145 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 130 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.34 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Guardians Rising printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 126 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#2 (joint) · Machop
Skyridge · 74/144 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 150 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$83.00 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The e-Reader-style border is part of this Skyridge card’s visual identity. This estimate is for the reverse holo specifically; another finish can share the same artwork and collector number.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 150 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#2 (joint) · Machop
Lost Origin · 86/196 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 150 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.34 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Lost Origin printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 149 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#1 · Machop
Expedition · 117/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 160 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$17.25 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Machop stands in a shadowed architectural setting, its blue-green body framed by Expedition’s broad e-Reader border. The reverse holo is the version ranked here, using the existing rough pool estimate for 117/165.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 159 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
How we compare Machop pull rates
We compare the chance of pulling one exact card from one English pack of its release. A rarity’s overall hit rate is different from the odds of finding a particular Machop within that rarity. Evidence ranges from reported community openings and print-sheet models to rough comparisons and assumed rarity frequencies. Each rough estimate carries its warning beside the odds; expand its explanation for the actual basis.
Japanese cards, guaranteed promos, deck cards and box toppers are outside this ranking. Vintage editions with shared odds take one position. Distinct pack-pulled finishes can qualify separately. Prices do not affect the order, and a missing price does not remove an otherwise eligible card.
Up to ten cards are selected automatically from available estimates, with any tie at the cutoff kept together. Estimates are rounded to two significant digits for comparison, not presented as precise measurements. New cards can enter when a matching printing and estimate are available; prices refresh with the catalogue. Descriptions stay with their card when the order changes.
Machop pull-rate questions
Which Machop card is hardest to pull?
Machop 117/165 (Expedition, Reverse Holofoil) has the lowest estimated chance among the qualifying cards here: about 1 in 160 packs. This is the current model’s ordering, including any rough assumptions labelled above. It does not cover every Machop ever released.
Will opening 160 packs guarantee the top-ranked card?
No. For the first card listed at rank 1, opening 160 independent packs gives an estimated 63.6% chance of at least one copy. The average waiting time is not a promise; actual packs and factory collation can behave differently from this model.
Is the hardest Machop to pull also the most expensive?
Not necessarily. Artwork, demand, condition and how much product exists also matter to collectors. This guide ranks estimated pack odds. Our most expensive Machop guide compares available raw prices instead.
Do a booster box or an Elite Trainer Box guarantee a Machop?
These estimates do not establish any product-level guarantee. A named Machop promo included in a product is separate from the random cards inside its booster packs. Use the exact-card calculator to explore pack quantities and its stated assumptions.
Why can a reverse-holo Machop rank above a rarer-looking card?
This compares one exact printing. A large reverse-holo pool can make a particular card’s modelled chance small even when reverse holos overall are common. Most of these estimates assume equal chances within the pool. That does not prove this Pokémon is short-printed, and it does not describe the ordinary non-holo version.