11 Hardest Charmeleon Pokémon Cards to Pull
Ranked by estimated pull rates from English booster packs.
Charmeleon’s chases are easy to overlook beside Charizard, but its Shiny printings and illustration rare make an evolution-line binder more interesting. Compare the estimated odds for individual English cards, including older reverse-holo versions.
Estimated odds, limited coverage. This uses the same estimates as our pull-rate calculators, including labelled rough models and very-low-confidence assumptions. It does not establish the hardest Charmeleon ever printed; nearby estimates may not represent a real difference in difficulty.
How the ranking works ↓We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links. Card images are artwork references; edition stamps and foil finishes may differ.
Charmeleon pull rates at a glance
A larger pack figure means a lower estimated chance. Figures are rounded to two significant digits; matching rounded estimates share a rank.
| Rank | Card & set | Estimated packs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charmeleon 110/091Paldean Fates · Holofoil | ~1 in 470 |
| 2 | Charmeleon 102/100Stormfront · Holofoil | ~1 in 300Very low confidence |
| 3 | Charmeleon SV7/SV94Hidden Fates: Shiny Vault · Holofoil | ~1 in 230 |
| 4 | Charmeleon 169/165Pokémon 151 · Holofoil | ~1 in 190 |
| 5 | Charmeleon 73/165Expedition · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 160Rough estimate |
| 6 = | Charmeleon 13/181Team Up · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 140Rough estimate |
| 6 = | Charmeleon 24/185Vivid Voltage · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 140Rough estimate |
| 8 = | Charmeleon 19/149Boundaries Crossed · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 130Rough estimate |
| 8 = | Charmeleon 46/132Secret Wonders · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 130Rough estimate |
| 10 = | Charmeleon 19/147Burning Shadows · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 120Rough estimate |
| 10 = | Charmeleon 27/197Obsidian Flames · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 120Rough estimate |
The hardest-to-pull Charmeleon countdown
#10 (joint) · Charmeleon
Obsidian Flames · 27/197 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 120 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.46 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Obsidian Flames printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1.5 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 176 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#10 (joint) · Charmeleon
Burning Shadows · 19/147 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 120 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.66 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Burning Shadows printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 122 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#8 (joint) · Charmeleon
Secret Wonders · 46/132 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 130 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$13.88 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Secret Wonders printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 130 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#8 (joint) · Charmeleon
Boundaries Crossed · 19/149 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 130 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$8.05 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Boundaries Crossed printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 130 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#6 (joint) · Charmeleon
Vivid Voltage · 24/185 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.32 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Vivid Voltage printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 142 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#6 (joint) · Charmeleon
Team Up · 13/181 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$1.41 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Team Up reverse holo is a separate target from its ordinary finish. Where a set has more than one artwork of the same Pokémon, the collector number matters just as much as the name.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 145 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#5 · Charmeleon
Expedition · 73/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 160 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$139.99 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Expedition’s e-Reader-era design gives this printing a different look from modern cards. This entry ranks the reverse holo of the exact collector number shown, rather than every foil card with the same Pokémon name.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 159 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#4 · Charmeleon
Pokémon 151 · 169/165 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 190 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$53.95 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Charmeleon stands on a rocky ledge in the 151 illustration rare, giving the middle evolution a dramatic setting of its own. It is a separate numbered card from the regular Charmeleon, with its own rarity-pool estimate.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#3 · Charmeleon
Hidden Fates: Shiny Vault · SV7/SV94 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 230 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$17.10 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Shiny Vault Charmeleon belongs to Hidden Fates, with SV7 identifying the exact printing. It can sit alongside SV6 Charmander in an evolution-line collection without being confused with their ordinary set cards.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Shiny Vault cards use Hidden Fates packs. Baby shiny, shiny GX and full-art Trainer categories occupy separate pools. Gold cards and foil Energy allocations remain unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#2 · Charmeleon
Stormfront · 102/100 · English · Holofoil
Very low confidence. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 300 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$109.62 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Stormfront’s secret Charmeleon offers an older collecting counterpart to its Charmander and Charizard printings. Its estimated odds use an illustrative rarity assumption rather than an observed individual rate.
Where this estimate comes from
Illustrative starting assumption: one Rare Secret group hit in about 100 packs, shared equally across 3 eligible cards. No measured rate supports this assumed frequency; use it only as a rough scenario.
#1 · Charmeleon
Paldean Fates · 110/091 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 470 packs
An average waiting time, never a guaranteed pull.
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$13.04 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Shiny Charmeleon makes a companion piece to the Shiny Charmander in Paldean Fates. This estimate is for 110/091 specifically, rather than every Charmeleon that can appear in a pack.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
How we compare Charmeleon pull rates
We compare the chance of pulling one exact card from one English pack of its release. A rarity’s overall hit rate is different from the odds of finding a particular Charmeleon within that rarity. Evidence ranges from reported community openings and print-sheet models to rough comparisons and assumed rarity frequencies. Each rough estimate carries its warning beside the odds; expand its explanation for the actual basis.
Japanese cards, guaranteed promos, deck cards and box toppers are outside this ranking. Vintage editions with shared odds take one position. Distinct pack-pulled finishes can qualify separately. Prices do not affect the order, and a missing price does not remove an otherwise eligible card.
Up to ten cards are selected automatically from available estimates, with any tie at the cutoff kept together. Estimates are rounded to two significant digits for comparison, not presented as precise measurements. New cards can enter when a matching printing and estimate are available; prices refresh with the catalogue. Descriptions stay with their card when the order changes.
Charmeleon pull-rate questions
Which Charmeleon card is hardest to pull?
Charmeleon 110/091 (Paldean Fates, Holofoil) has the lowest estimated chance among the qualifying cards here: about 1 in 470 packs. This is the current model’s ordering, including any rough assumptions labelled above. It does not cover every Charmeleon ever released.
Will opening 470 packs guarantee the top-ranked card?
No. For the first card listed at rank 1, opening 470 independent packs gives an estimated 63.1% chance of at least one copy. The average waiting time is not a promise; actual packs and factory collation can behave differently from this model.
Is the hardest Charmeleon to pull also the most expensive?
Not necessarily. Artwork, demand, condition and how much product exists also matter to collectors. This guide ranks estimated pack odds. Our most expensive Charmeleon guide compares available raw prices instead.
Do a booster box or an Elite Trainer Box guarantee a Charmeleon?
These estimates do not establish any product-level guarantee. A named Charmeleon promo included in a product is separate from the random cards inside its booster packs. Use the exact-card calculator to explore pack quantities and its stated assumptions.
Why can a reverse-holo Charmeleon rank above a rarer-looking card?
This compares one exact printing. A large reverse-holo pool can make a particular card’s modelled chance small even when reverse holos overall are common. Most of these estimates assume equal chances within the pool. That does not prove this Pokémon is short-printed, and it does not describe the ordinary non-holo version.