The 1st Edition Charizard from the 1999 Pokémon Base Set is arguably the most iconic trading card in the hobby, capturing the hearts of collectors worldwide. Its combination of nostalgia, rarity, and sheer cultural impact makes it the ultimate grail card for Pokémon enthusiasts. But just how many 1st Edition Charizards are still out there? The truth is, no one knows for sure.

Some sources estimate that 100,000 1st Edition Charizards were originally printed. However, many collectors and experts believe the number of surviving cards—whether graded or ungraded—might be much closer to 10,000. Let’s explore why this range is so wide and why the reality likely leans toward the lower end.

The Graded Populations: A Measurable Benchmark

The best way to gauge the current availability of 1st Edition Charizards is by looking at population reports from major grading companies. These reports show how many Charizards have been professionally authenticated and graded. Here's the breakdown from PSA, BGS, and CGC:

PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator)

• Total graded: 4,484
• PSA 10: 125 (the crown jewel of Charizards)

BGS (Beckett Grading Services)

• Thick Stamp: 405 graded (no BGS 10s; 10 BGS 9.5s)
• Thin Stamp: 724 graded (3 BGS 10s, none with Black Label)

(The '1' is thicker compared to the thin stamps which have a thinner '1'.)

CGC (Certified Guaranty Company)

• Total graded: 502

Total Graded Population Across All Companies

When we sum up these numbers:

4,484 (PSA) + 405 (BGS Thick) + 724 (BGS Thin) + 502 (CGC) = 6,115 graded 1st Edition Charizards.

This gives us a reliable figure for the cards that have been professionally graded so far. But these numbers don’t account for ungraded Charizards still sitting in binders, cupboards, or forgotten storage boxes.

The Case for Fewer Than 10,000

While the upper estimate of 100,000 printed Charizards might seem feasible, it’s crucial to consider the following factors that make the 10,000 figure much more realistic:

1. Loss and Damage Over Time

• Many Charizards have been lost, damaged, or destroyed over the years.
• Cards from the late 1990s were primarily treated as toys, not as valuable collectibles. This means countless Charizards were bent, creased, or otherwise rendered worthless long before grading even existed.

2. Gradual Discovery

• While new ungraded Charizards occasionally surface, the rate of discovery has slowed significantly in recent years. Most cards that were in circulation have already been graded or identified, reducing the likelihood of a massive undiscovered supply.

3. Resubmissions and Duplicates

• Some cards are “cracked” out of their graded cases and resubmitted to grading companies in the hopes of achieving a higher grade. This inflates population reports, meaning the total number of unique cards is likely lower than the combined grading totals.

Why the 100k Estimate Exists

The 100k figure is often based on estimates of the original print run, which may indeed have produced tens of thousands of 1st Edition Charizards. However, print run numbers don’t equate to surviving cards. Over 25 years, the number of mint condition 1st Edition Charizards has dwindled significantly.

The Ultra-Rare PSA 10s and BGS 10s

Among the graded population, PSA 10 and BGS 10 Charizards are exceedingly rare:

• PSA 10: Only 125 exist, making this the gold standard for collectors.
• BGS 10: Just 3 Thin Stamps have earned this grade, and none have achieved the elusive Black Label.

These high-grade examples are the most valuable, often selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

What’s Hiding in Storage?

While graded reports give us a strong baseline, it’s worth noting that some 1st Edition Charizards may still be sitting ungraded in storage. Forgotten collections in cupboards, attics, or basements could contain additional cards, but the likelihood of pristine, high-grade examples is small. Most ungraded cards will likely fall into lower-grade categories due to wear and tear.

Final Thoughts: How Many Are Left?

The truth is, we may never know exactly how many 1st Edition Charizards exist. Some sources claim there could be up to 100,000, but most evidence points to the actual number of remaining cards—graded and ungraded—being much closer to 10,000.

With only 6,115 graded Charizards across PSA, BGS, and CGC, and many others lost or forgotten, the 1st Edition Charizard remains a rare and valuable piece of Pokémon history. Whether it’s a PSA 10 or a raw card pulled from a dusty childhood binder, owning a 1st Edition Charizard is like holding a piece of nostalgia that transcends generations.