Elsa - Spirit of Winter 42/204 pull rates
The First Chapter · Legendary · Normal
Buy this card
Estimated raw price
$4.82 USD
Normal
Price updated 4 Nov 2026 (UTC)
We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links.
! Rough estimate · Limited evidence
Rough estimates from community openings and stated assumptions, not official or measured individual-card odds. Samples can be small or biased, and production runs may differ. Box and case odds assume independent packs; factory collation can change the actual chance.
Chance of pulling at least one
Pack
≈1.5%About 1 in 68 packs
Box
≈30%24 packs
Case
≈76%4 boxes · 96 packs
Chance of pulling at least one
Estimated chance: ≈30%
Box, case and custom quantities use an independent-pack approximation. Factory collation is not modelled; no card is guaranteed.
How many packs to pull Elsa - Spirit of Winter?
The model averages about one success per 68 packs for this exact finish. Opening that many packs does not guarantee a copy. The calculator shows the estimated chance of at least one.
Are these official Lorcana odds?
No. They combine reported rarity frequencies with equal-card assumptions. Rare, Super Rare and Legendary nonfoil cards have two slots; foil and chase versions are calculated separately.
How this card’s estimate is calculated
Uses the reported ordinary rarity mix, normalized across two rare-or-better slots, with no repeated exact card in a pack. Equal selection across 12 legendary card numbers is assumed. Reviewed 2026-11-05. Individual cards are allocated equal odds within each rarity/finish pool. Normal Rare, Super Rare and Legendary counts are normalized across the two rare-or-better slots. The source lists 772 ordinary rare-or-better cards against 768 expected slots. We use its relative rarity mix, not an uncorrected pack probability.
The First Chapter: research & limitations
12 cards per standard booster, 24 packs per box and 4 boxes per case. Reviewed 2026-11-05 (UTC).
Individual cards are allocated equal odds within each rarity/finish pool. Normal Rare, Super Rare and Legendary counts are normalized across the two rare-or-better slots.
The source lists 772 ordinary rare-or-better cards against 768 expected slots. We use its relative rarity mix, not an uncorrected pack probability.
Sources: DigitalTQ opening sample (384 reported packs). These are reported samples, not independently audited factory odds. The full evidence ledger is retained for review.
Common/Uncommon cold-foil rates are a very low confidence residual-slot allocation, not measured frequencies. Conflicting denominators and unmapped special treatments use explicitly labelled educated assumptions. A conditional estimate does not confirm that the exact printing appears in boosters.