10 Hardest Spearow Pokémon Cards to Pull
Ranked by estimated pull rates from English booster packs.
Spearow’s illustration rare gives a familiar Kanto bird a scene of its own, while older reverse holos offer a different sort of chase. This guide compares estimated English pack odds for exact collector numbers and finishes, with current raw prices alongside each card.
Pull rates are estimates—see how this ranking works.
Estimated odds, limited coverage. This uses the same estimates as our pull-rate calculators, including labelled rough models and very-low-confidence assumptions. It does not establish the hardest Spearow ever printed; nearby estimates may not represent a real difference in difficulty.
How the ranking works ↓We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links. Card images are artwork references; edition stamps and foil finishes may differ.
Spearow pull rates at a glance
A larger pack figure means a lower estimated chance. Figures are rounded to two significant digits; matching rounded estimates share a rank.
| Rank | Card & set | Estimated packs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spearow 151/132Mega Evolution · Holofoil | ~1 in 200 |
| 2 | Spearow 145/214Unbroken Bonds · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 180Rough estimate |
| 3 | Spearow 130/165Expedition · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 160Rough estimate |
| 4 | Spearow 97/149Sun & Moon Base Set · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 140Rough estimate |
| 5 | Spearow 111/163Battle Styles · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 120Rough estimate |
| 6 | Spearow 94/110Legendary Collection · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 110 |
| 7 = | Spearow 81/112EX FireRed & LeafGreen · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 100Rough estimate |
| 7 = | Spearow 78/119Phantom Forces · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 100Rough estimate |
| 7 = | Spearow 21/165Pokémon 151 · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 100Rough estimate |
| 10 | Spearow 74/100Majestic Dawn · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 96Rough estimate |
The hardest-to-pull Spearow countdown
#10 · Spearow
Majestic Dawn · 74/100 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 96 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$2.24 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Majestic Dawn printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 96 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#7 (joint) · Spearow
Pokémon 151 · 21/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 100 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$1.03 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The reverse holo is a separate finish of this numbered 151 card, rather than an illustration rare. A shared artwork image does not show every foil difference, so match the finish as well as the collector number.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1.5 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 153 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#7 (joint) · Spearow
Phantom Forces · 78/119 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 100 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.59 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Phantom Forces printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 104 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#7 (joint) · Spearow
EX FireRed & LeafGreen · 81/112 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 100 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$14.65 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The reverse-holo finish gives this EX FireRed & LeafGreen printing its own place in a set checklist. Compare the number carefully where the expansion includes another artwork of the same Pokémon.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 103 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#6 · Spearow
Legendary Collection · 94/110 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 110 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$149.99 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Legendary Collection’s distinctive reverse-holo treatment makes this a different collecting target from the ordinary finish. The displayed image may be an artwork reference; check the actual foil pattern when buying.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Reverse holos use the community single-sheet estimate of 1/110. Common and uncommon estimates approximate the mixed nine-card sheet.
#5 · Spearow
Battle Styles · 111/163 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 120 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.22 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Battle Styles printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 123 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#4 · Spearow
Sun & Moon Base Set · 97/149 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.29 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Sun & Moon Base Set printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 136 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#3 · Spearow
Expedition · 130/165 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 160 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$9.99 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Expedition’s e-Reader-era design gives this printing a different look from modern cards. This entry ranks the reverse holo of the exact collector number shown, rather than every foil card with the same Pokémon name.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 159 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#2 · Spearow
Unbroken Bonds · 145/214 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 180 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$0.36 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This reverse holo offers a smaller collecting target alongside Unbroken Bonds’ GX chases. Its estimated chance concerns this particular number and finish, not the probability of finding any reverse holo.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 179 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#1 · Spearow
Mega Evolution · 151/132 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 200 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$3.87 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
A noisy gathering of Spearow fills this illustration rare, with open beaks and ruffled feathers giving the scene plenty of character. Number 151/132 identifies this expanded artwork, separate from the ordinary Spearow in the same expansion.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
How we compare Spearow pull rates
We compare the chance of pulling one exact card from one English pack of its release. A rarity’s overall hit rate is different from the odds of finding a particular Spearow within that rarity. Evidence ranges from reported community openings and print-sheet models to rough comparisons and assumed rarity frequencies. Each rough estimate carries its warning beside the odds; expand its explanation for the actual basis.
Japanese cards, guaranteed promos, deck cards and box toppers are outside this ranking. Vintage editions with shared odds take one position. Distinct pack-pulled finishes can qualify separately. Prices do not affect the order, and a missing price does not remove an otherwise eligible card.
Up to ten cards are selected automatically from available estimates, with any tie at the cutoff kept together. Estimates are rounded to two significant digits for comparison, not presented as precise measurements. New cards can enter when a matching printing and estimate are available; prices refresh with the catalogue. Descriptions stay with their card when the order changes.
Spearow pull-rate questions
Which Spearow card is hardest to pull?
Spearow 151/132 (Mega Evolution, Holofoil) has the lowest estimated chance among the qualifying cards here: about 1 in 200 packs. This is the current model’s ordering, including any rough assumptions labelled above. It does not cover every Spearow ever released.
Will opening 200 packs guarantee the top-ranked card?
No. For the first card listed at rank 1, opening 200 independent packs gives an estimated 62.9% chance of at least one copy. The average waiting time is not a promise; actual packs and factory collation can behave differently from this model.
Is the hardest Spearow to pull also the most expensive?
Not necessarily. Artwork, demand, condition and how much product exists also matter to collectors. This guide ranks estimated pack odds. Our most expensive Spearow guide compares available raw prices instead.
Do a booster box or an Elite Trainer Box guarantee a Spearow?
These estimates do not establish any product-level guarantee. A named Spearow promo included in a product is separate from the random cards inside its booster packs. Use the exact-card calculator to explore pack quantities and its stated assumptions.
Why can a reverse-holo Spearow rank above a rarer-looking card?
This compares one exact printing. A large reverse-holo pool can make a particular card’s modelled chance small even when reverse holos overall are common. Most of these estimates assume equal chances within the pool. That does not prove this Pokémon is short-printed, and it does not describe the ordinary non-holo version.