10 Hardest Pikachu Pokémon Cards to Pull
Ranked by estimated pull rates from English booster packs.
Pikachu has an unusually varied collection of booster-pack chases, from playful Flying and Surfing cards to rainbow TAG TEAMs and crystalline ex artworks. This countdown compares existing English estimates, including clearly labelled rough assumptions. A high modelled position is not proof of an observed rarity record.
Pull rates are estimates—see how this ranking works.
Estimated odds, limited coverage. This uses the same estimates as our pull-rate calculators, including labelled rough models and very-low-confidence assumptions. It does not establish the hardest Pikachu ever printed; nearby estimates may not represent a real difference in difficulty.
How the ranking works ↓We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links. Card images are artwork references; edition stamps and foil finishes may differ.
Pikachu pull rates at a glance
A larger pack figure means a lower estimated chance. Figures are rounded to two significant digits; matching rounded estimates share a rank.
| Rank | Card & set | Estimated packs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pikachu (Secret) 241/236Cosmic Eclipse · Holofoil | ~1 in 2,100Very low confidence |
| 2 = | Pikachu ex 276/217Ascended Heroes · Holofoil | ~1 in 1,500 |
| 2 = | Pikachu ex 277/217Ascended Heroes · Holofoil | ~1 in 1,500 |
| 4 | Pikachu ex 247/191Surging Sparks · Holofoil | ~1 in 1,100 |
| 5 | Pikachu ex 238/191Surging Sparks · Holofoil | ~1 in 960 |
| 6 | Pikachu VMAX (Secret) 188/185Vivid Voltage · Holofoil | ~1 in 940 |
| 7 | Pikachu ex 179/131Prismatic Evolutions · Holofoil | ~1 in 890 |
| 8 | Pikachu & Zekrom GX (Secret) 184/181Team Up · Holofoil | ~1 in 800Very low confidence |
| 9 = | Flying Pikachu 110/108Evolutions · Normal | ~1 in 630Rough estimate |
| 9 = | Surfing Pikachu 111/108Evolutions · Normal | ~1 in 630Rough estimate |
The hardest-to-pull Pikachu countdown
#9 (joint) · Surfing Pikachu
Evolutions · 111/108 · English · Normal
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 630 packs
Normal · Estimated raw price
$11.50 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Surfing Pikachu balances on a board above a curling blue wave. Like Flying Pikachu, this secret-numbered Evolutions card has a Normal finish. The displayed odds use an existing comparison estimate rather than a measured individual rate.
Where this estimate comes from
Uses the median group frequency (0.80% per pack) from BREAKpoint, Fates Collide, Steam Siege, Ancient Origins, BREAKthrough, divided among 5 cards in this set's group. Those sets are comparisons, not evidence for this set.
#9 (joint) · Flying Pikachu
Evolutions · 110/108 · English · Normal
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 630 packs
Normal · Estimated raw price
$10.07 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Balloons carry Flying Pikachu across a blue sky in this playful secret-numbered card. The ranked finish is Normal, not holo. Its rough comparison estimate is especially worth checking before treating it as equivalent to a modern ultra-rare chase.
Where this estimate comes from
Uses the median group frequency (0.80% per pack) from BREAKpoint, Fates Collide, Steam Siege, Ancient Origins, BREAKthrough, divided among 5 cards in this set's group. Those sets are comparisons, not evidence for this set.
#8 · Pikachu & Zekrom GX (Secret)
Team Up · 184/181 · English · Holofoil
Very low confidence. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 800 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$248.72 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Pikachu and Zekrom share this rainbow TAG TEAM card, pairing a small familiar face with a much larger partner. The estimate is an illustrative rarity-pool assumption for the secret 184/181 printing, not an observed count of this card.
Where this estimate comes from
Illustrative starting assumption: one Rare Rainbow group hit in about 80 packs, shared equally across 10 eligible cards. No measured rate supports this assumed frequency; use it only as a rough scenario.
#7 · Pikachu ex
Prismatic Evolutions · 179/131 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 890 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$44.16 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Pikachu ex appears in a gold treatment with a brightly coloured crystalline crown. The 179/131 collector number ties this card to Prismatic Evolutions, rather than the other gold Pikachu ex printings.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Special Illustration Rare odds are withheld because the source could not separate multi-SIR packs from ordinary packs. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#6 · Pikachu VMAX (Secret)
Vivid Voltage · 188/185 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 940 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$168.08 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Rainbow colour spreads across Pikachu’s oversized Gigantamax form in this secret VMAX. Number 188/185 separates the rainbow chase from the ordinary VMAX artwork in Vivid Voltage.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Community opening frequencies; individual card estimates divide the category by its eligible card pool. Alternate-art allocations and ordinary reverse odds remain unavailable unless separately supported. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#5 · Pikachu ex
Surging Sparks · 238/191 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 960 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$241.14 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Bright crystals, colourful light and green foliage frame Pikachu ex in this special illustration rare. Its scene-based artwork is distinct from the gold 247/191 card. This estimate concerns 238/191 specifically.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#4 · Pikachu ex
Surging Sparks · 247/191 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 1,100 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$66.90 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Gold surrounds the crystalline Pikachu ex in this hyper-rare printing. It is a different artwork and rarity from the special illustration rare at 238/191, so the two have separate estimates even though both feature the same Pokémon ex.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#2 (joint) · Pikachu ex
Ascended Heroes · 277/217 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 1,500 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$254.66 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
A brilliant pink background and a multicoloured crystalline crown give this Pikachu ex a bold graphic look. Match 277/217 when searching for this version, rather than relying on the shared Pikachu ex name.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#2 (joint) · Pikachu ex
Ascended Heroes · 276/217 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 1,500 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$587.86 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Pikachu stands in a softly lit woodland scene, with warm sunlight falling through the greenery. This is the 276/217 artwork; the vividly coloured Pikachu ex at 277/217 is a separate collecting target.
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#1 · Pikachu (Secret)
Cosmic Eclipse · 241/236 · English · Holofoil
Very low confidence. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 2,100 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$216.63 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Pikachu and its Trainer share a cheerful indoor scene on this character artwork. Although catalogued as Secret Rare, this is not a rainbow GX. Its displayed odds come from the existing broad illustrative rarity fallback, so the very-low-confidence estimate should not be treated as proof that this is the rarest Pikachu pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Illustrative starting assumption: one Rare Secret group hit in about 100 packs, shared equally across 21 eligible cards. No measured rate supports this assumed frequency; use it only as a rough scenario.
How we compare Pikachu pull rates
We compare the chance of pulling one exact card from one English pack of its release. A rarity’s overall hit rate is different from the odds of finding a particular Pikachu within that rarity. Evidence ranges from reported community openings and print-sheet models to rough comparisons and assumed rarity frequencies. Each rough estimate carries its warning beside the odds; expand its explanation for the actual basis.
Japanese cards, guaranteed promos, deck cards and box toppers are outside this ranking. Vintage editions with shared odds take one position. Distinct pack-pulled finishes can qualify separately. Prices do not affect the order, and a missing price does not remove an otherwise eligible card.
Up to ten cards are selected automatically from available estimates, with any tie at the cutoff kept together. Estimates are rounded to two significant digits for comparison, not presented as precise measurements. New cards can enter when a matching printing and estimate are available; prices refresh with the catalogue. Descriptions stay with their card when the order changes.
Pikachu pull-rate questions
Which Pikachu card is hardest to pull?
Pikachu (Secret) 241/236 (Cosmic Eclipse, Holofoil) has the lowest estimated chance among the qualifying cards here: about 1 in 2,100 packs. This is the current model’s ordering, including any rough assumptions labelled above. It does not cover every Pikachu ever released.
Will opening 2,100 packs guarantee the top-ranked card?
No. For the first card listed at rank 1, opening 2,100 independent packs gives an estimated 63.2% chance of at least one copy. The average waiting time is not a promise; actual packs and factory collation can behave differently from this model.
Is the hardest Pikachu to pull also the most expensive?
Not necessarily. Artwork, demand, condition and how much product exists also matter to collectors. This guide ranks estimated pack odds. Our most expensive Pikachu guide compares available raw prices instead.
Do a booster box or an Elite Trainer Box guarantee a Pikachu?
These estimates do not establish any product-level guarantee. A named Pikachu promo included in a product is separate from the random cards inside its booster packs. Use the exact-card calculator to explore pack quantities and its stated assumptions.