Shanks (SP) ST16-004 pull rates
A Fist of Divine Speed · SR · Foil
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Estimated raw price
$163.41 USD
Foil
Price updated 4 Nov 2026 (UTC)
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! Educated estimate · Very low confidence
Educated estimates informed by community openings and explicit assumptions, not official or measured individual-card odds. Exact artwork and finish frequencies can differ greatly. Box and case chances use independent packs; real factory collation and special multi-hit packs can change the result.
Educated estimate: exact card odds are unmeasured and actual rates may vary greatly.
Chance of pulling at least one
Pack
≈0.099%About 1 in 1,000 packs
Box
≈2.4%24 packs
Case
≈25%12 boxes · 288 packs
Chance of pulling at least one
Estimated chance: ≈2.4%
Box, case and custom quantities use an independent-pack approximation. Factory collation is not modelled; no card is guaranteed.
How many packs to pull Shanks (SP)?
The model averages about one success per 1,000 packs for this exact finish. Opening that many packs does not guarantee a copy. The calculator shows the estimated chance of at least one.
Are these official One Piece odds?
No. They use community-informed tier frequencies and stated assumptions. Standard cards, alternate leaders, manga, SP, premium finishes and DON!! treatments are kept separate. Equal selection within a tier is an educated guess.
How this card’s estimate is calculated
Educated estimate: the tier frequency and equal-card allocation are modelling assumptions; this exact card’s odds have not been measured. Uses approximately 2 sp cards per 288-pack case, divided across 7 reviewed printing identities. This is the chance for this exact printing, not any card in its tier. Reviewed 2026-11-05 UTC. Special multi-hit packs can cluster cards; box and case odds use an independent-pack approximation.
A Fist of Divine Speed: research & limitations
12 cards per booster, 24 packs per box and 12 boxes per case. Reviewed 2026-11-05 (UTC).
Every individual-card number is an educated estimate, not a measured or official probability. Equal selection within each reviewed printing tier is assumed. Small community reports are context, not proof of a fixed box/case quota.
Main-series baseline assumptions: 7 ordinary Common and 2 Uncommon cards per pack; about 8 Leaders, 7 SR and 0.6 SEC per 24-pack box; 16 non-Leader alternate arts and 4 alternate Leaders per 12-box case. These averages are modelling choices and do not describe a guaranteed pack layout.
Chase priors: any Manga/Super Alternate Art averages one in four cases; gold SP or signed card one in twenty; super Leader one in ten. These are especially uncertain analogues, split across the listed tier. Zero observed hits is never treated as impossibility.
Promotional inserts, bonus packs and box toppers are excluded from ordinary booster odds. A card number appearing in multiple sets does not make the printings interchangeable.
Sources: Bandai English product catalogue (card types, not odds); English OP01 community opening report (secondhand, six cases). These sources describe product contents or community experience; none measures every exact card’s probability. The full evidence ledger is retained for review.
The model uses assumed tier frequencies and fixed reviewed card pools. It does not infer rarity from price, and an absent price does not remove a card from its pool. A conditional estimate does not confirm that the exact printing appears in boosters.