Mirabel Madrigal - Musically Talented 35/204 pull rates
Archazia's Island · Super Rare · Cold Foil
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Estimated raw price
$1.00 USD
Cold Foil
Price updated 4 Nov 2026 (UTC)
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! Educated estimate · Very low confidence
Rough estimates from community openings and stated assumptions, not official or measured individual-card odds. Samples can be small or biased, and production runs may differ. Box and case odds assume independent packs; factory collation can change the actual chance.
Educated estimate: uses an assumed pack total because the source counts conflict.
Chance of pulling at least one
Pack
≈0.27%About 1 in 370 packs
Box
≈6.3%24 packs
Case
≈23%4 boxes · 96 packs
Chance of pulling at least one
Estimated chance: ≈6.3%
Box, case and custom quantities use an independent-pack approximation. Factory collation is not modelled; no card is guaranteed.
How many packs to pull Mirabel Madrigal - Musically Talented?
The model averages about one success per 370 packs for this exact finish. Opening that many packs does not guarantee a copy. The calculator shows the estimated chance of at least one.
Are these official Lorcana odds?
No. They combine reported rarity frequencies with equal-card assumptions. Rare, Super Rare and Legendary nonfoil cards have two slots; foil and chase versions are calculated separately.
How this card’s estimate is calculated
Very low confidence. Educated guess: the source reports conflicting totals of 1008 and 1056 packs. We use their midpoint, 1032, as an assumed denominator for Rare/Super Rare foil counts. It is not a measured pack total. Common/Uncommon foil estimates inherit this assumption and the unmeasured residual split. Reported Super Rare foil frequency is divided equally among 18 super rare card numbers. This estimates the selected foil printing only. Reviewed 2026-11-05. Individual cards are allocated equal odds within each rarity/finish pool. Normal Rare, Super Rare and Legendary counts are normalized across the two rare-or-better slots. The source lists 2121 ordinary rare-or-better cards against 2016 expected slots. We use its relative rarity mix, not an uncorrected pack probability. Educated guess: the source reports conflicting totals of 1008 and 1056 packs. We use their midpoint, 1032, as an assumed denominator for Rare/Super Rare foil counts. It is not a measured pack total. Common/Uncommon foil estimates inherit this assumption and the unmeasured residual split. Foil Legendary and available chase tiers use 8,832 packs from the tracker’s non-bulk sealed-case cohort; ordinary Rare/Super Rare foils use Deck Box. Cohorts are not pooled, and may overlap.
Archazia's Island: research & limitations
12 cards per standard booster, 24 packs per box and 4 boxes per case. Reviewed 2026-11-05 (UTC).
Individual cards are allocated equal odds within each rarity/finish pool. Normal Rare, Super Rare and Legendary counts are normalized across the two rare-or-better slots.
The source lists 2121 ordinary rare-or-better cards against 2016 expected slots. We use its relative rarity mix, not an uncorrected pack probability.
Educated guess: the source reports conflicting totals of 1008 and 1056 packs. We use their midpoint, 1032, as an assumed denominator for Rare/Super Rare foil counts. It is not a measured pack total. Common/Uncommon foil estimates inherit this assumption and the unmeasured residual split.
Foil Legendary and available chase tiers use 8,832 packs from the tracker’s non-bulk sealed-case cohort; ordinary Rare/Super Rare foils use Deck Box. Cohorts are not pooled, and may overlap.
Sources: Deck Box opening workbook (1,008 reported packs); Narzghal tracker — non-bulk sealed cases (8,832 reported packs). These are reported samples, not independently audited factory odds. The full evidence ledger is retained for review.
Common/Uncommon cold-foil rates are a very low confidence residual-slot allocation, not measured frequencies. Conflicting denominators and unmapped special treatments use explicitly labelled educated assumptions. A conditional estimate does not confirm that the exact printing appears in boosters.