13 Hardest Moltres Pokémon Cards to Pull
Ranked by estimated pull rates from English booster packs.
Moltres’s fiery Kanto appearance and darker Galarian form make distinct collecting themes. Its full-art and alternate-art cards should be matched by number rather than name alone. This guide compares estimated English pull rates while keeping uncertainty and exact finishes visible.
Pull rates are estimates—see how this ranking works.
Estimated odds, limited coverage. This uses the same estimates as our pull-rate calculators, including labelled rough models and very-low-confidence assumptions. It does not establish the hardest Moltres ever printed; nearby estimates may not represent a real difference in difficulty.
How the ranking works ↓We may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made through our eBay links. Card images are artwork references; edition stamps and foil finishes may differ.
Moltres pull rates at a glance
A larger pack figure means a lower estimated chance. Figures are rounded to two significant digits; matching rounded estimates share a rank.
| Rank | Card & set | Estimated packs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 = | Galarian Moltres V (Full Art) 176/198Chilling Reign · Holofoil | ~1 in 1,000Rough estimate |
| 1 = | Galarian Moltres V (Alternate Full Art) 177/198Chilling Reign · Holofoil | ~1 in 1,000Rough estimate |
| 1 = | Team Rocket's Moltres ex 229/182Destined Rivals · Holofoil | ~1 in 1,000 |
| 4 | Galarian Moltres V (Secret) 183/172Brilliant Stars · Holofoil | ~1 in 400 |
| 5 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex 208/182Destined Rivals · Holofoil | ~1 in 340 |
| 6 | Moltres 149/147Supreme Victors · Holofoil | ~1 in 300Very low confidence |
| 7 | Moltres 38/214Lost Thunder · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 180Rough estimate |
| 8 = | Rocket's Moltres ex 100/109EX Team Rocket Returns · Holofoil | ~1 in 150 |
| 8 = | Moltres 21/144Skyridge · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 150Rough estimate |
| 10 = | Galarian Moltres V 97/198Chilling Reign · Holofoil | ~1 in 140 |
| 10 = | Moltres EX (Team Plasma) 14/135Plasma Storm · Holofoil | ~1 in 140Rough estimate |
| 10 = | Moltres 36/147Supreme Victors · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 140Rough estimate |
| 10 = | Moltres 19/181Team Up · Reverse Holofoil | ~1 in 140Rough estimate |
The hardest-to-pull Moltres countdown
#10 (joint) · Moltres
Team Up · 19/181 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$2.88 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Team Up reverse holo is a separate target from its ordinary finish. Where a set has more than one artwork of the same Pokémon, the collector number matters just as much as the name.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 145 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#10 (joint) · Moltres
Supreme Victors · 36/147 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$17.39 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Supreme Victors printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 140 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#10 (joint) · Moltres EX (Team Plasma)
Plasma Storm · 14/135 · English · Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$23.59 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
Uses the median group frequency (5.6% per pack) from Legendary Treasures, Plasma Blast, Plasma Freeze, Boundaries Crossed, Dark Explorers, divided among 8 cards in this set's group. Those sets are comparisons, not evidence for this set.
#10 (joint) · Galarian Moltres V
Chilling Reign · 97/198 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 140 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$1.59 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Community count of 1,296 packs from 36 booster boxes: regular V about 1/9 and regular VMAX about 1/29. Full-art, rainbow, gold and alternate-art allocations remain withheld because the published category boundaries do not establish all individual pools. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#8 (joint) · Moltres
Skyridge · 21/144 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 150 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$192.48 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
The e-Reader-style border is part of this Skyridge card’s visual identity. This estimate is for the reverse holo specifically; another finish can share the same artwork and collector number.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 150 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#8 (joint) · Rocket's Moltres ex
EX Team Rocket Returns · 100/109 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 150 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$999.99 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Gold Star tier uses the community 1-in-108-pack model. Here Comes Team Rocket! has uncertain individual odds and remains unavailable. Charmeleon is a box topper. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#7 · Moltres
Lost Thunder · 38/214 · English · Reverse Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 180 packs
Reverse Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$1.99 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
This Lost Thunder printing adds a reverse-holo version to the Pokémon’s checklist. The estimate concerns the exact collector number shown. An ordinary card with the same artwork does not count as this foil pull.
Where this estimate comes from
Assumes 1 effective ordinary reverse-holo slots per pack, shared equally across 178 eligible reverse printings. This simplifies special-card replacements and unequal print sheets; the slot allowance is a modelling assumption.
#6 · Moltres
Supreme Victors · 149/147 · English · Holofoil
Very low confidence. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 300 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$456.78 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
Illustrative starting assumption: one Rare Secret group hit in about 100 packs, shared equally across 3 eligible cards. No measured rate supports this assumed frequency; use it only as a rough scenario.
#5 · Team Rocket's Moltres ex
Destined Rivals · 208/182 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 340 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$3.92 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#4 · Galarian Moltres V (Secret)
Brilliant Stars · 183/172 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 400 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$21.21 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Community opening frequencies; individual card estimates divide the category by its eligible card pool. Alternate-art allocations and ordinary reverse odds remain unavailable unless separately supported. Source sample: 1004 packs. Full-art/alternate-art categories and gallery cards are not combined. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#1 (joint) · Team Rocket's Moltres ex
Destined Rivals · 229/182 · English · Holofoil
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 1,000 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$56.66 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
The estimated rarity frequency is divided across the eligible cards in that pool, assuming equal individual chances. It is not a measured count of this particular card.
Published TCGplayer opening frequencies. Specific-card rates assume an equal share of its rarity pool; these are estimates, not manufacturer odds. Common and uncommon cards use a uniform slot approximation. Ordinary reverse odds are unavailable. Independent pack calculations do not reproduce print-sheet collation.
#1 (joint) · Galarian Moltres V (Alternate Full Art)
Chilling Reign · 177/198 · English · Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 1,000 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$233.30 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Where this estimate comes from
Uses the median group frequency (3.9% per pack) from Evolving Skies, Shining Fates, Astral Radiance, Champion's Path, Darkness Ablaze, divided among 39 cards in this set's group. Those sets are comparisons, not evidence for this set.
#1 (joint) · Galarian Moltres V (Full Art)
Chilling Reign · 176/198 · English · Holofoil
Rough estimate. Limited evidence; actual odds may vary greatly.
Estimated pull rate
About 1 in 1,000 packs
Holofoil · Estimated raw price
$16.68 USD
Price observed Nov 4, 2026 UTC
Galarian Moltres’ black body and vivid pink flames stand against a dark full-art background. This is 176/198, separate from the alternate artwork at 177/198 and other Moltres forms.
Where this estimate comes from
Uses the median group frequency (3.9% per pack) from Evolving Skies, Shining Fates, Astral Radiance, Champion's Path, Darkness Ablaze, divided among 39 cards in this set's group. Those sets are comparisons, not evidence for this set.
How we compare Moltres pull rates
We compare the chance of pulling one exact card from one English pack of its release. A rarity’s overall hit rate is different from the odds of finding a particular Moltres within that rarity. Evidence ranges from reported community openings and print-sheet models to rough comparisons and assumed rarity frequencies. Each rough estimate carries its warning beside the odds; expand its explanation for the actual basis.
Japanese cards, guaranteed promos, deck cards and box toppers are outside this ranking. Vintage editions with shared odds take one position. Distinct pack-pulled finishes can qualify separately. Prices do not affect the order, and a missing price does not remove an otherwise eligible card.
Up to ten cards are selected automatically from available estimates, with any tie at the cutoff kept together. Estimates are rounded to two significant digits for comparison, not presented as precise measurements. New cards can enter when a matching printing and estimate are available; prices refresh with the catalogue. Descriptions stay with their card when the order changes.
Moltres pull-rate questions
Which Moltres card is hardest to pull?
Team Rocket's Moltres ex 229/182 (Destined Rivals, Holofoil) and Galarian Moltres V (Alternate Full Art) 177/198 (Chilling Reign, Holofoil) and Galarian Moltres V (Full Art) 176/198 (Chilling Reign, Holofoil) share the lowest estimated chance among the qualifying cards here: about 1 in 1,000 packs. This is the current model’s ordering, including any rough assumptions labelled above. It does not cover every Moltres ever released.
Will opening 1,000 packs guarantee the top-ranked card?
No. For the first card listed at rank 1, opening 1,000 independent packs gives an estimated 61.9% chance of at least one copy. The average waiting time is not a promise; actual packs and factory collation can behave differently from this model.
Is the hardest Moltres to pull also the most expensive?
Not necessarily. Artwork, demand, condition and how much product exists also matter to collectors. This guide ranks estimated pack odds. Our most expensive Moltres guide compares available raw prices instead.
Do a booster box or an Elite Trainer Box guarantee a Moltres?
These estimates do not establish any product-level guarantee. A named Moltres promo included in a product is separate from the random cards inside its booster packs. Use the exact-card calculator to explore pack quantities and its stated assumptions.
Why can a reverse-holo Moltres rank above a rarer-looking card?
This compares one exact printing. A large reverse-holo pool can make a particular card’s modelled chance small even when reverse holos overall are common. Most of these estimates assume equal chances within the pool. That does not prove this Pokémon is short-printed, and it does not describe the ordinary non-holo version.